Blessed be the firework makers

Some easy New Year’s predictions: Dubai’s fireworks suppliers will enjoy a bumper start to the year, those looking for a second-hand, barely-used Lexus will find a bargain, and February Fridays at Mall of the Emirates will be a living hell. Welcome to 2008. Welcome to Dubai Shopping Festival.
A DSF press release, helpfully reprinted by Gulf News, informs us weekend firework displays will last 20 minutes (2007’s were a paltry three minutes), more than 90 Lexus and Nissan cars will be raffled (only to appear next day at 4x4 Motors), and visitors numbers will be up from 3.5million to nearly 4m.
The number of participating retailers will increase from 2,800 last year to over 3,500. Revenues are expected to top $3bn. There will be lots of gold to be won.
The official figures tell us DSF is a continued success, attracting more visitors to Dubai and generating greater revenue. The formula must work otherwise why would Jeddah and Doha, among others, want to copy it?
But what if, for one year, there was no DSF? Would Dubai fail to attract visitors during the best winter-sun period of the year? Would the golf, horse racing and tennis fail to add visitors? Would the world class malls be empty?
This is not to knock DSF, but some clearer evidence of the DSF effect would be welcome. How many visitors are persuaded to choose Dubai because of DSF? How many extra purchases are made because there is a raffle?
At the moment it appears DSF is an industry that needs to keep feeding itself.